Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), which have lost more than half their value from their 2024 highs, are finally worth snapping up, Argus Research says in a new research note.
CMG stock has sagged for roughly two years against a backdrop of higher commodity prices and labor costs, as well as an uncertain American economy. Shares are down 51% since peaking in June 2024, including 15% losses year-to-date.
However, on Tuesday morning, Argus became the latest research firm to express optimism about CMG shares following the company’s late-April first-quarter earnings report.
Argus Says CMG Is a Buy
Analyst John Staszak upgraded Chipotle’s shares to Buy from Hold in a Tuesday morning note, believing CMG is at a “potential inflection point” and that the company is poised to return to growth.
“Our upgrade reflects unit expansion, increased store productivity, and a return to customer traffic growth,” he writes. “Our EPS estimates for the next two years imply low-double-digit growth.”
| Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG): Quick Stats | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $40.9 billion |
| Dividend yield | N/A |
| Forward price-to-earnings (P/E) | 28.7 |
| Price-to-sales (P/S) | 3.6 |
| Data is as of May 5, 2026. | |
Argus’s $40 price target on CMG stock represents roughly 25% upside from Monday’s closing price.
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The upgrade comes in the wake of Chipotle’s Q1 earnings report. The company reported revenues of $3.09 billion (+7.4% year-over-year), which was better than the Street consensus estimate of $3.06 billion. That came on same-store sales that improved by 0.6%. Earnings of 24¢ per share were down 17% YoY but in line with expectations.
CMG guided flat same-store sales for 2026, but “in our opinion, management’s guidance is cautious and likely to be surpassed as comps accelerate throughout the remainder of the year,” Staszak writes.
The upgraded rating represents Argus’s 12-month view on CMG. However, the firm also provides long-term ratings on equities, too. CMG is also a Buy on that front, with Staszak adding that “we remain confident that Chipotle can achieve its long-term goals of mid-single-digit comp growth, high-single-digit revenue growth, and mid-teens operating margins.”
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Other Analysts Warm to the Burrito-Slinger
Chipotle’s Q1 earnings were generally well-met by the Street.
Oppenheimer analysts, for instance, reiterated their Outperform rating and $51 price target (59% upside) shortly after the announcement and raised their full-year 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates. “We elevated CMG into our top picks in early-’26, and believe the 1Q26 business update validates a more positive setup for the rest of the year,” they wrote. “It’s encouraging to witness CMG’s marketing, innovation, and digital drivers gaining traction across different consumer cohorts.”
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BofA Global Research (Buy) modestly raised their estimates for 2026 same-store sales growth (to 1.5% from 1.2%) and earnings per share (to $1.14 from $1.11). They maintained a $50 price target, which is 56% upside from current prices.
Looking at the whole analyst community, 27 pros call the stock a Buy, versus 11 Holds and no Sells. A consensus price target of $43.50 across CMG’s covering analysts suggests a 36% return over the next 12 months.
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